GHG Baseline Scenario

Definition

A GHG Baseline Scenario is a reference case for a GHG Project Activity. It is a hypothetical description of what would have most likely occurred in the absence of any considerations about climate change mitigation.

The baseline scenario is used to estimate Baseline Emissions. There are three generic possibilities for the baseline scenario :

• implementation of the same technologies or practices used in the project activity;
• implementation of a baseline candidate; or
• the continuation of current activities, technologies, or practices that, where relevant, provide the same type, quality, and quantity of product or service as the project activity.

Baseline Scenario Horizon

Generally, the farther out into the future one tries to project what would have happened, the more uncertain this projection becomes. For this reason, a particular baseline scenario or performance standard should be valid only for a finite period of time for the purpose of estimating baseline emissions.

After a certain period, either no further GHG reductions are recognized for the project activity, or a new (revised) baseline scenario or performance stan- dard is identified. The length of this period may vary, depending on technical and policy considerations, and on whether baseline emission estimates are dynamic or static.