Marginal Default Probability
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Definition
The term Marginal Default Probability is used in the context of multi-period credit risk analysis to denote the likelihood that a legal entity is observed to experience a Credit Event during a defined period of time (hence conditional on not having defaulted prior to that period).
The marginal default probability is identical in meaning with the Hazard Rate.
NB: It is important to distinguish the marginal default probability from the Incremental Default Probability which measures the observed default rate during a given period without conditioning on no default prior to the current period.
- In terms of the Cumulative Default Probability we have where we denote with the cumulative default probability up to time
- In terms of the Marginal Default Probability we have where is the marginal default probability during period . The marginal default probability is also denoted the Hazard Rate
- In terms of the Survival Probability we have where is the survival probability up to point