Difference between revisions of "Inflation Expectations"
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== Definition == | == Definition == | ||
| − | '''Inflation Expectations''' | + | '''Inflation Expectations''' are at any given point in time the explicit or implicit [[Expected]] realisations of [[Inflation]] for any set of agents participating in an economy with a given monetary system. |
| + | |||
| + | == Measurement == | ||
| + | * From asset prices (market derived) | ||
| + | * From surveys | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Fisher Identity == | ||
| + | The Fisher Identity links current or implied forward inflation rates as a measure of inflation to nominal and real interest rates. It forms the conceptual basis for extracting inflation expectations from asset prices (using comparable fixed-income instruments that are promising nominal and indexed cash flows respectively). | ||
| + | |||
| + | :<math> | ||
| + | (1 + Nominal Rate) = (1 + Real Rate) (1 + Inflation Expectation) | ||
| + | </math> | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | == Issues and Challenges == | ||
| + | * Extracting inflation expectations from asset prices may be skewed by other market related factors and risk premia that may be hard to isolate | ||
| + | * Inflation Expectations are not obviously linked with [[Inflation]] realizations.<ref>Rudd, Jeremy B. (2021). “Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Mat- | ||
| + | ter for Inflation? (And Should We?),” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-062. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System</ref> | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | == References == | ||
| + | <references/> | ||
[[Category:Inflation Risk]] | [[Category:Inflation Risk]] | ||
Latest revision as of 12:51, 7 December 2021
Definition
Inflation Expectations are at any given point in time the explicit or implicit Expected realisations of Inflation for any set of agents participating in an economy with a given monetary system.
Measurement
- From asset prices (market derived)
- From surveys
Fisher Identity
The Fisher Identity links current or implied forward inflation rates as a measure of inflation to nominal and real interest rates. It forms the conceptual basis for extracting inflation expectations from asset prices (using comparable fixed-income instruments that are promising nominal and indexed cash flows respectively).
Issues and Challenges
- Extracting inflation expectations from asset prices may be skewed by other market related factors and risk premia that may be hard to isolate
- Inflation Expectations are not obviously linked with Inflation realizations.[1]
References
- ↑ Rudd, Jeremy B. (2021). “Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Mat- ter for Inflation? (And Should We?),” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-062. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
