Difference between revisions of "Dynamic Input-Output Models"

From Open Risk Manual
(Formula)
(Formula)
Line 10: Line 10:
 
* X(t) = A X(t) + C(t) + D(t)
 
* X(t) = A X(t) + C(t) + D(t)
 
* D(t) = B (X(t+1) - X(t))
 
* D(t) = B (X(t+1) - X(t))
* X(t) = A X(t) + C(t) + B X(t+1) - B X(t)
+
* X(t) = A X(t) + C(t) + B (X(t+1) -X(t))
 
* (I - A + B) X(t) = C(t) + B X(t+1)
 
* (I - A + B) X(t) = C(t) + B X(t+1)
  
  
The production of period t is defined:
+
The production of period t is related to the production in period t+1 through equation:
  
 
:<math>
 
:<math>
X(t) = (I - A + B)^{-1} (C(t) + B X(t) )
+
X(t) = (I - A + B)^{-1} (C(t) + B X(t+1) )
 
</math>
 
</math>
  
while the production of period t+1 is determined by:
+
while the production of period t+1 is related to the production in period t through equation:
 
:<math>
 
:<math>
X(t+1) = B^{-1}[(I - A + B) X(t) - C ]
+
X(t+1) = B^{-1}[(I - A + B) X(t) - C(t) ]
 
</math>
 
</math>
  
Line 29: Line 29:
 
** C = exogenous final demand (consumption)
 
** C = exogenous final demand (consumption)
 
** D = induced investment
 
** D = induced investment
* B = input coefficients for capital (the amount of sector i’s product (in dollars) held as capital stock for production of one dollar’s worth of output by sector j).
+
* B = input coefficients for capital (the amount of sector i product (in dollars) held as capital stock for production of one dollar’s worth of output by sector j).
 
* I = unit matrix
 
* I = unit matrix
 
* A = input coefficients for intermediate production ([[Technical Coefficient Matrix]])
 
* A = input coefficients for intermediate production ([[Technical Coefficient Matrix]])

Revision as of 11:45, 19 September 2023

Definition

Dynamic Input-Output Models is a category of various possible generalization of the basic Input-Output Model that allow accounting for more sophisticated temporal behavior [1], [2]

Dynamic (inter-temporal) frameworks can address phenomena such as stock accumulation (both physical and capital), technology changes and other such time-dependent developments.

Mathematically the equations of the standard IO model become finite difference equations involving one or more timepoints.

Formula

The typical equations of a dynamic input-output model are:

  • X(t) = A X(t) + C(t) + D(t)
  • D(t) = B (X(t+1) - X(t))
  • X(t) = A X(t) + C(t) + B (X(t+1) -X(t))
  • (I - A + B) X(t) = C(t) + B X(t+1)


The production of period t is related to the production in period t+1 through equation:


X(t) = (I - A + B)^{-1} (C(t) + B X(t+1) )

while the production of period t+1 is related to the production in period t through equation:


X(t+1) = B^{-1}[(I - A + B) X(t) - C(t) ]

Where:

  • Y Final Demand splits into C + D where
    • C = exogenous final demand (consumption)
    • D = induced investment
  • B = input coefficients for capital (the amount of sector i product (in dollars) held as capital stock for production of one dollar’s worth of output by sector j).
  • I = unit matrix
  • A = input coefficients for intermediate production (Technical Coefficient Matrix)
  • (I - A)^{-1} = matrix of cumulative input coefficients (Leontief Inverse Matrix)
  • t = time index of successive periods


This is a system of linear difference equations, since the values of the variables X are related to different periods of time. NB: In this example the coefficient matrices are assumed time invariant.

Issues and Challenges

  • Practical problems relate to the matrix B of capital coefficients.

Further Resources

References

  1. Eurostat Manual of Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables, 2008 edition
  2. R.E. Miller and P.D. Blair, Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press, 2009