Transition Probability

From Open Risk Manual

Definition

A Transition Probability for a stochastic (random) system is the probability the system will transition between given states in a defined period of time.

Let us assume a state space S ={0, \dots ,D}. The the probability of moving from state m to state n in one time step is

Pr(n|m)=T^{mn}
  • The collection of all transition probabilities forms the Transition Matrix which satisfies various properties.
  • When the system is observed for an infinitesimal time period, we talk about the Transition Rate.