Sustainability Scenarios

From Open Risk Manual

Definition

Sustainability Scenarios are formal projections of the likely development of the Ecological Footprint under different policy / economic developments

EU Context

2016 Reference Scenario

The EU Reference Scenario 2016 is elaborated and analysed in E3M-Lab and IIASA (2016). It takes into account the EU policies adopted until 2015 and assumes that the EU2020 targets are achieved. It assumes that beyond 2020 no targets are set for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and that no additional relevant policy is implemented. 88 The report estimates the investment needs in the sectors mentioned earlier.

Takes into account policies until 2015, it assumes that 2020 targets are achieved. Beyond 2020, no additional RES targets are set, no additional policy support is modelled. The EU 2030 targets are not achieved.

EUCO Scenarios

EUCO27, EUCO30, EUCO+33, EUCO+35, EUCO+40 are a set of scenarios of increasing stringency that achieve the EU 2030 targets, with different margins and pathways. The scenarios assume a range of policies including:

  • revised EU ETS;
  • policies facilitating renewables energy targets in the electricity, heating & cooling and transport sectors;
  • energy efficiency policies in the buildings sector via e.g. increasing the rate of renovation,
  • facilitating access to capital for investment in thermal renovation of buildings;
  • ecodesign standards banning the least efficient technologies.

IEA and IRENA Scenarios

In the report “Perspectives For The Energy Transition: Investment Needs For A Low-carbon Energy System” (2017) by the International Energy Agency and International Renewable Energy Agency (IEA and IRENA) joined forces to shed light on how the energy sector should develop, at the global level, in order to achieve the objective set out in the Paris Agreement.

Targets

  • Limiting the global mean temperature rise to well below 2°C with a probability of 66%.
  • Between 2015 and 2100, the CO2 budget estimation amounts to 880 Gt.

IRENA

  • Renewable Energy Roadmap (REmap) energy mixes complemented with the E3ME, a global macro-econometric model model that covers the global economy
  • It represents a techno-economic assessment of energy system developments on a country level, for all G20 countries.
  • Two scenarios: The Reference Case (also called the baseline or business-as-usual), and The REmap Case (also called the decarbonisation case) an accelerated renewables case based on decarbonisation targets.

IEA

  • The model consists of three main modules: final energy consumption (residential, services, agriculture, industry, transport and non-energy use); energy transformation (including power generation and heat, refinery and other transformation); and energy supply.
  • Detailed sector-by-sector and region-by-region projections for the World Energy Outlook (WEO) scenarios.