Abstract Risk Model

From Open Risk Manual

Definition

An Abstract Risk Model denotes any abstract (typically mathematical) framework that aims to provide (in the most general case) an assessment of possible future outcomes within a defined event space.

Mathematically abstract risk models can be thought as functions operating on a set of Model Inputs about a certain system and producing as set of Model Outputs that extract information about the same system.

Models are generally named, that is there is a list of persons who first proposed the particular mathematical formulation, adapted it to a particular risk management context or amended earlier proposals.

Usage

  • Abstract Risk Models are expressed as a document (a paper, report, wiki page etc.) that holds a self-contained, human readable description of the model (including possibly mathematical notation).
  • In general, the abstract model documentation does not constitute a precise Model Specification. An abstract model represents a Class of models, which can be implemented in a variety of concrete instances. The model specification fixes all parametric and data mapping freedom of the abstract model.
  • The Model Implementation is the concrete transposition of the concepts underlying the abstract model into computer code. This can take many different forms depending on the concrete IT platform that is selected for the implementation.
  • A core element of the model implementation is the source code (in the form of a collection of files) that represents the abstract model together with any specification choices made at this stage. A Code Repository serves the complete, auditable, model implementation
  • Risk Models span a large range of possible types, best organized in a Model Taxonomy

Issues and Challenges

  • The set of assumptions embedded in the abstract risk model is the key source of Intrinsic Model Risk
  • Category:Open Source implementations enable full transparency and access to the specifics of an abstract model implementation

Risk Model Ontology

In the context of the DOAM Risk Model Ontology this entry constitutes an annotation of the Abstract Risk Model Class

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