2019 Risk Scenarios

2019 Risk Scenarios

This list is a worked out example of stress scenarios motivated by the publication

Actor(s)	Metric / Observable	Jurisdiction(s)	Financial Market(s)	Connections
Algorithmic Traders	Market Gap (Discontinuous Jump)	Global	Equities, Credit
Chinese, Europe Population	GDP Slowdown / Reduction	China, Europe		Impact on US Economy
Chinese, Europe Population	GDP Slowdown / Reduction	China, Europe		US Dollar Appreciation
Fixed Income Investors	US Debt Volumes / Bid-Ask spreads	US	US Interest Rates
US Treasury	Increase in US T-Bill Volumes	US	Libor-OIS spread
US Treasury	Increase in US Bond Volumes	US	Demand for Investment Grade Credit
European, Japanese Investors	FX Hedging Costs	US	US Credit
ECB	Ending Quantitative Easing	Eurozone	Global Fixed Income
BoJ	Slowing Quantitative Easing	Japan	Global Fixed Income
Fixed Income Investors	2yr-10yr Yield Curve Spread	US		Credit, Equity Markets
US Corp Management	Use of Corporate Tax Cuts	US	Equities
US Governement	Governement Shutdown	US	Global Markets
UK Governement	No-deal Brexit	UK	Global Markets
US, China	Tariffs	US, China
US, EU	Tariffs	US, EU
Fed	Interest Rate Increase	US		Profit Margins from Wages Growth
Fed	Interest Rate Increase	US		Inflation Expectations Unanchored
French Population	Public Unrest	France
European Population	European Parlament Elections	EU
DE Real Estate Investors	House Price Increases	Germany	Real Estate
Italian Government	Fiscal Policy	Italy
Australian, Canadian Real Estate Investors	House Price Increases	Australia, Canada	Real Estate
Chinese Population	Response to economic stimulus	China
Chinese Government	Current Account Deficit Surprise	China
Chinese Population	Chinese GDP	China		Japanese GDP
Emerging Market Populations	Political Change	India, Argentina, South Africa, Indonesia
Global Economies	Inequality Index	Global
Fed, ECB	QE Re-enactement	US, EU		Broken correlation with GDP
Global Goverments and CB's	Monetary and Fiscal Easing	Global		Broken correlation with GDP

See Also

• 2020 Risk Scenarios